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03/10/2009 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 34th-annual Big West Conference Tournament will once again take place at the Anaheim Convention Center Arena for a ninth straight season. The bottom four seeds of the eight-team field will take part in first-round action Wednesday night. The top two seeds receive byes all the way to Friday's semifinal round, while the No. 3 and No. 4 seeds get a bye to the quarterfinals on Thursday.
Cal State Northridge (15-13, 11-5) locked up its second straight Big West regular-season crown, which means the Matadors get the top seed in the conference tourney and are guaranteed at least an automatic berth to the National Invitation Tournament. Of course, they'll be gunning for the top prize; a ticket to the Big Dance. It's the Matadors' first-ever No. 1 seed, after finishing last season in a three-way tie atop the conference standings. They've got the top spot all to themselves this season, although it almost never happened.
Northridge lost its regular-season finale at Pacific on Saturday, while second-place Long Beach State was having its way with UC Santa Barbara. All the 49ers had to do was hold on to beat UCSB and they'd have the top seed, due to tiebreakers. However, the Gauchos put together a huge rally, eventually beating Long Beach State on a last-second three-pointer. So, as it turned out, Long Beach State (15-14, 10-6) gets the No. 2 seed and will receive the other automatic bye to the semifinal round. The 49ers are tied with Pacific for most tournament titles (4) and most tourney wins (25), with 2007 being their most recent Big West Tournament crown.
Speaking of Pacific (17-11, 10-6), the Tigers locked up the No. 3 seed and will play the lowest remaining seed in Thursday's quarterfinal round. UCSB (15-14, 8-8) has the fourth seed and will play in the night cap of Thursday's quarterfinals, versus the highest remaining seed. Teams aren't exactly lining up to face the Gauchos, who closed out the season by winning three straight and seven of their last eight games.
First-round action will get started Wednesday, with the No. 5 UC Irvine Anteaters (12-18, 8-8) taking on No. 8 UC Davis. UC Irvine (12-18, 7-9) made it all the way to the Big West Championship game last season as a five-seed. The Anteaters finished the season strong, winning four of their final five games, although they lost both regular-season meetings against UC Davis. The Aggies are making their first Big West Tournament appearance after joining the league in 2008.
The Anteaters have one of the league's top young stars in freshman forward Eric Wise, who earned second-team All-Big West honors after leading UCI with 14.2 ppg. Wise is the league's highest scoring freshman and has six 20-point games under his belt this season, and he is also collecting 5.9 rebounds per game. He is complemented by Michael Hunter (11.8 ppg), who is averaging 2.53 three-pointers per game. Hunter is also one of the team's top defensive presences, averaging a league-best 1.93 steals per game in BWC play. Kevin Bland is a solid presence down on the blocks, where he is posting 10.0 ppg and 7.2 rpg. While the Anteaters do have a few reliable scoring options, they've often struggled on the defensive end, allowing opponents to put up 68.8 ppg and shoot 46.1 percent from the floor. They are also being out-rebounded by an average margin of 3.4 boards per game.
As for the Aggies, they sputtered down the stretch by losing four straight. Their season finale was a 27-point loss to Northridge, which was also their most lopsided defeat of the season. It will be up to guys like Vince Oliver, the program's first-ever All-Big West first-team selection, to bounce back with a much better effort. Oliver led UC Davis with 15.5 ppg, and he stepped up his production to 18.4 ppg in Big West games. Joe Harden (14.9 ppg, 7.2 rpg) and Mark Payne (10.8 ppg, 5.7 rpg) were second-team selections. Harden ranks fifth in the conference in scoring and third in rebounding, and he set a school record with 158 free throws made this season. He posted 18.0 ppg over the final seven games. Payne is shooting a ridiculous 67.8 percent from the field and is also doling out 5.0 assists per game. The Aggies are one of the better shooting teams in the league, as they are knocking down 36.3 percent of their attempts from beyond the arc, and 78.4 percent of their free throws.
Cal State Fullerton (14-16, 7-9) won this tournament last season and the Titans boast this year's Big West Player of the Year in senior guard Josh Akognon. Those factors aside, Fullerton enters first-round action with losses in five of its last six league games. The Titans and Highlanders split the regular-season series. Akognon has been in the top-10 in the nation in scoring all season long, as he finished with 23.5 ppg. He started all 30 games and knocked down 123 three-pointers (36.1 percent) and 125 free throws (88.7 percent). The only other Titan to have started each game this season is Jacques Streeter, a 42.3 percent shooter from beyond the arc who averaged 10.4 ppg. Beyond that however, the Titans simply don't have a whole lot of offensive firepower. They've also struggled with some of the bigger teams, as they are a -4.5 in rebounding margin for the season.
The Highlanders (17-12, 8-8) racked up 17 wins this season, marking their highest win total since joining Division I in 2001. They actually finished in a three-way tie for fourth place with UCSB and UC Irvine, but dropped to sixth after the tie breakers were sorted out. Senior guard Aaron Scott (9.8 ppg) missed Saturday's season finale against Cal Poly, a game that UCR wound up losing and subsequently falling to the No. 6 seed. The team is hopeful Scott will be available for the conference tournament. In any case, most of the scoring onus will still fall on Kyle Austin, who leads the team with 16.8 ppg to go along with 6.2 rpg. Austin is the only double-digit scorer this season for the Highlanders, who average just 60.7 ppg. Javon Borum is tallying 9.7 ppg, though he is a 42.6 percent shooter from beyond the arc. UCR is solid on the boards, out-rebounding foes by an average margin of 3.4 boards per game.
Although they needed a good bit of fortune to lock up the No. 1 seed, the Matadors will certainly take the bye, and the fresh legs, while the other teams battle it out. The 49ers could use the extra two days to figure out how they coughed up such a comfortable lead against UC Santa Barbara. Meanwhile, those UCSB Gauchos have been red-hot of late, and they can stand toe-to-toe with anybody in the Big West. Looking at the rest of the field, while not impossible, the four bottom seeds are facing a pretty big task to win four games in four nights. But in the end Northridge has the deepest roster and, with a two-round head start, the best shot to grab the coveted NCAA Tournament bid.
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<< Suns, Mavs square off in the desert
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The S
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game road trip against the lowly Sacramento Kings at ARCO Arena.
Nenad Krstic scor
<< Bobcats continue playoff push in San Antonio vs. Spurs
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quick two-game road trip Tuesday against the tough San Antonio Spurs.
The Bobcats have won
Pens shoot for seventh straight win in home test vs. Panthers >>
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tonight, as the Pittsburgh Penguins shoot for a season-best seventh straight
win when the Florida Panthers enter Mellon Arena for an important late-year
matchup.
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With Carbonneau gone, Gainey leads Habs against Oilers >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Montreal Canadiens may be coming off one of their
better showings in recent memory, but that still couldn't save the fate of the
team's head coach.
Bob Gainey takes over for the fired Guy Carbonneau behind the bench wh
Red Wings hope to bounce back in home tilt against Coyotes >>
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home loss behind them when the Phoenix Coyotes take on the defending Stanley
Cup champions tonight at Joe Louis Arena.
Detroit had a two-game win streak come to an
Division-leading Devils, Flames tangle in New Jersey >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A pair of first-place teams will battle tonight in the
Garden State, as the New Jersey Devils welcome the Calgary Flames to
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al
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Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
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One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
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That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
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MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
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