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03/09/2009 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After an amazing, down to the wire finish to the regular season, the 30th Annual Mid-American Conference Tournament will begin Tuesday at the Quicken Loans Arena. The winner of this event will earn an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.
Heading into this weekend there were four teams from the East Division all tied for the top spot in the division and more importantly, the number one seed. Bowling Green came into its season-finale matchup only needing a win to collect the top seed and the MAC crowd, and the team did just that, dominating Ohio, 75-41. Bowling Green finished 11-5 in league play, tied with Buffalo which will play as the third seed in the tournament since the team was swept by BGSU on the season. Miami-Ohio and Akron were the other two teams caught up in the four-way tie, but the RedHawks fell to Buffalo in overtime and the Zips were narrowly defeated by Kent State, leaving the RedHawks, Zips and Golden Flashes all tied at 10-6 at the end of regular-season play. Miami-Ohio captured the last of the four first-round byes due to tiebreakers, and although the Golden Flashes beat Akron in the season-finale, Kent State will play as the six seed, while Akron will don the fifth spot.
Although often overlooked, the West Division also saw a race come down to the wire, as Ball State and Western Michigan were trying to claim the division title and the second seed in the tournament. Both schools came into this weekend tied for first, but with only a 7-8 mark in conference action. Neither Ball State or Western Michigan could get the job done, as both teams fell to 7-9, placing them in a tie with Central Michigan, which defeated the Broncos on Sunday. With tiebreakers coming into play the Cardinals were named West Division champs and grabbed the second seed in this event. Because Central Michigan defeated WMU, the Chippewas earned the seventh spot, while the Broncos fell all the way to the eight slot. The final four seeds belong to Ohio, Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois and Toledo.
After a crazy and wild end to the regular season, expect even more fireworks once the tournament opens on Tuesday.
Opening round action will begin Tuesday afternoon when the Eastern Michigan Eagles collide with the Central Michigan Chippewas. The Eagles opened their season in terrible fashion, losing 21 of their first 24 contests. However, the Eagles are now soaring at the right time, closing out their regular season with four consecutive wins, earning the 10th-seed in the tournament. Eastern Michigan will not last long in this event however, if the team does not produce offensively, which is definitely a concern since the Eagles finished last in league play with 57.6 ppg. As for their counterpart, the Chippewas of Central Michigan, they are had trouble offensively, averaging just 62.2 ppg. The Chippewas also head into this game on a high note, winning four of their last six matchups, including two in a row. For Central Michigan to grab its third straight win the team must defeat an Eastern Michigan squad that defeated the Chippewas twice this year.
Another contest in the opening round of play will pit the sixth-seeded Kent State Golden Flashes against the 11th-seeded Northern Illinois Huskies. The Huskies did not enjoy much success this season, finishing the year with a meager 5-11 mark in conference play. NIU is averaging just 66.3 ppg on the season, and has relied mainly on the play of Darion Anderson, who is leading the team with 16.9 ppg and 5.4 rpg. The Flashes closed out their regular season with a 67-63 victory over Akron. It was the 10th win in the last 12 matchups for KSU, which captured the MAC title this past season. Since the turn of the century, the Golden Flashes have been the top team in the Mid- American Conference, playing in six title games, while winning on four different occasions.
The Ohio Bobcats and Western Michigan Broncos will get into the mix on Tuesday, as the eighth-seeded Broncos will collide with the ninth-seeded Bobcats in opening round action. The Bobcats enter this event on a downward spiral, losing five of their last six games, including three in a row. Ohio won its fourth MAC title in 2005 and currently owns a 27-23 ledger in this event. As for the Broncos, they came into their season finale with a chance to claim the West Division title, and the second seed in the tourney, but instead the team gave up a late lead to Central Michigan and fell to the eighth spot. Western Michigan close out its regular-season with nine losses in its last 12 games, and it is unlikely the team will return to the title game for the first time since 2004.
The final matchup on Tuesday will have the 12th-seeded Toledo Rockets take on the fifth-seeded Akron Zips. Toledo might have closed out its regular season with a win over Northern Illinois (74-69), but the team did not enjoy much success this year, posting a terrible 5-11 mark in league action. The Rockets have been terrible at the offensive end of the floor and come into the postseason netting just 58.1 ppg, which is only good enough for 10th in the MAC. As for the Zips, they have been on the wrong end of the last two title games, falling to Kent State and Miami-Ohio. This season Akron will try to return to the title game of this event, but it will be a tough journey for the Zips, especially since the team closed out its regular season with four losses in its last seven games.
It was not easy, but Bowling Green was able to find its way to the top of the MAC after a crazy final day of action. The Falcons, who are just 16-26 in this event all-time, finished the regular season with 10 wins in their last 13 matchups, while clinching the top spot with an 11-5 mark. Bowling Green's approach on the court is defense first, followed by timely scoring. The Falcons are holding opponents to just 60.8 ppg, but at the other end of the court the team is averaging just 64.2 ppg. The majority of the damage has been caused by Nate Miller, who is leading the team in scoring (12.7 ppg), rebounds (7.5 rpg) and steals (2.1 spg).
Grabbing the second seed solely on the fact they won the West Division are the Cardinals of Ball State. The Cardinals finished just 7-9 in conference play, and come into this event on a down note, having lost three consecutive matchups. Ball State is 11th in the MAC in scoring offense, posting just 57.9 ppg, and if the team plans on collecting its eighth championship and first since 2000, Ball State will have to improve drastically in that area. Ball State holds the best record in this event amongst teams currently in the conference (35-20), but the school has not participated in the title game since winning it all in 2000.
For the majority of the season the Buffalo Bulls had a commanding lead in the MAC, but by mid February the team's advantage began to slip away, and by the end of the regular season, Buffalo was sitting as the third seed in this event. The Bulls opened conference action on fire, and although the team with a stellar 19-10 overall record, the squad dropped five of its last seven matchups. The Bulls don't have much experience in this tournament, posting just a 5-9 all-time mark. Like most MAC teams, the Bulls were not overwhelming offensively and come into this matchup averaging just 65.5 ppg. Rodney Pierce is the lone player posting double figures (14.7 ppg) and he will need to step up his level of play substantially if the Bulls have any chance of grabbing their first-ever MAC title.
The final opening round bye belongs to the always dangerous Miami-Ohio RedHawks. Miami-Ohio has also captured 35 wins in this event, and has hoisted the trophy on four different occasions with the most recent championship run coming in 2007. The RedHawks finished the season with a 10-6 conference ledger, but stumbled down the stretch, losing four of their last six contests. Miami-Ohio's success usually stems from its tenacious defensive play, and once again that is true, as the RedHawks are limiting opponents to a league-best 58.4 ppg.
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The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.
While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.
For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.
1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.
2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.
How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.
Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.
Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.
How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).
Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.
Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.
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