Braves get another look at Strasburg

Baseball Betting Lines

07/27/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Nationals' Stephen Strasburg hasn't faced many hiccups since reaching the majors, but the 22-year-old phenom wasn't at the top of his game when he first faced the Braves.

Strasburg will look for better results tonight than that June outing in tonight's opener of a three-game series at Nationals Park versus the Atlanta Braves, who are coming off their first series loss to a National League club in almost three months.

The right-handed Strasburg is 5-2 with a 2.32 earned run average this season, but one of those losses came in Atlanta on June 28. Facing the NL East rivals for the first time, Strasburg gave up a career-high four runs, three of them earned, over 6 1/3 innings with seven strikeouts, leaving Braves manager Bobby Cox impressed.

"He's as advertised," Cox told Atlanta's website after the game. "He's dynamite. He's something really good for the game of baseball, something that special. He's got maybe the best changeup for a first-year player that I've ever seen. Everybody talks about his fastball, but his changeup goes straight down at 90 or 91 mph. It looks like some of the guys' best heaters going straight down."

The top pick of the 2009 draft, Strasburg has won three straight starts and is coming off Wednesday's victory over the Reds. He allowed three runs on seven hits and a walk over 5 2/3 innings, striking out seven to give him 75 through his first 54 1/3 innings. Strasburg also failed to reach seven innings pitched for a sixth start in a row.

Strasburg and 20-year-old Braves rookie Jason Heyward figure to engage in many battles over the course of their careers, but Heyward missed that first meeting due to injury. The outfielder comes into this game hitting .276 with 11 homers and 48 RBI, and is batting .486 over a nine-game hit streak.

Heyward had a pair of hits in Sunday's l5-4 loss to the Marlins, including a single with one out in the top of the 11th inning that loaded the bases. However, Nate McLouth hit into a double play and the Marlins won it in the bottom of the frame on Wes Helms' RBI single off Jesse Chavez.

Atlanta has lost six of 11 since going 17-8 from June 12-July 12 and the division leaders dropped their first set to an NL team since losing two of three to the Phillies on May 7-9. The club had been 12-0-4 in series versus the NL since.

The Braves' last series loss of any kind came in Chicago, where they were swept in three games by the White Sox from June 22-24.

"It's never good to drop a series, especially when they're within the division," Chipper Jones told Atlanta's website. "But we played well. A bounce here, a bounce there, we sweep the series. If we keep playing solid baseball, we're going to win a ton of games."

Atlanta will try to rebound behind a young gun of its own in 23-year-old Tommy Hanson, who is 0-1 with a 3.71 ERA over his last three starts and just 1-3 in his last four decisions.

Hanson did not factor into the decision of Wednesday's game versus the Padres, allowing two runs on six hits over 6 1/3 innings. On the season, the 23-year- old is 8-6 with a 4.12 ERA.

Hanson is 2-0 with a 2.94 ERA in five career starts versus the Nationals, but he did get a no-decision in Washington on May 5 after allowing four runs and nine hits over six frames of work.

He'll look to stay unbeaten against a Nats club that was swept in three games over the weekend by the Brewers and has lost seven of its last nine. Washington committed a pair of errors in Sunday's 8-3 loss, leading to five unearned runs allowed by losing starter Ross Detwiler.

"We did not have a good day defensively today," Nationals manager Jim Riggleman said. "We certainly didn't get it done today, but Detwiler has to pitch around [the errors]. I thought he did a good job and minimized the damage. We're just having growing pains."

Adam Dunn had two hits and an RBI as his name continues to surface in trade rumors leading up to Saturday's non-waiver trade deadline. The slugging first baseman is hitting .281 with 23 homers and 63 RBI on the season, but has gone deep just once in his last 12 games while hitting .250 (10-for-40) in that span.

The Braves and Nationals have split six meetings so far this year, with Atlanta taking two of three at home in late June.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

To visit this internet sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your sports betting needs and World Series odds.

Marlins could start season without No. 2 starter Johnson

JUPITER, Fla. -- The Foorida Marlins are preparing for the likelihood that right-hander
Josh Johnson won't be ready when the season starts April 2.

Grapefruit League action starts Wednesday, but Johnson, penciled in as the No. 2 starter, hasn't even thrown off a mound at full speed since September. He's experienced some soreness in his right forearm.

MySportsbook.com have the Marlins listed with baseball betting lines at +800 to win the NL East this season .

''You guys know the math. If he's not on the hill then he becomes an opening day roster issue,'' manager Fredi Gonzalez said Saturday. ''We're borderline now.''

Johnson, who finished 12-7 with a 3.10 ERA in 2007, was supposed to throw on flat ground Saturday. That was canceled when he woke up with pain.

He played catch on Wednesday with no pain but felt discomfort in a throwing session on Thursday. He's expected to try again Sunday.

''Like we always said from the very beginning, we're going to take it easy on him,'' Gonzalez said. ''He didn't feel right, so we shut him down. We're going to take it back to step one and see where we're at.''

Among the candidates to take Johnson's spot in the rotation are left-hander Chris George and right-handers Yusmeiro Petit and Jose Garcia.

Right-hander Sergio Mitre, who missed most of last season with arm and shoulder problems, also is behind.

With Johnson's status doubtful, Gonzalez said right-hander Ricky Nolasco will stay in the rotation and no longer will be considered a candidate for closer.

Additional basbeall odds can be found at: www.MySportsbook.com

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com - this sportsbook accepts credit cards.