Colts Carry New-Found Momentum into Houston

Football Betting Lines

12/22/2006 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Indianapolis Colts will attempt to move one step closer to securing a first-round playoff bye this Sunday at Reliant Stadium, where the AFC powerhouses visit a Houston Texans team they have owned in recent years.

The Colts earned a playoff spot when division-rival Jacksonville lost to Tennessee last Sunday, giving Indy the AFC South championship for the fourth consecutive year. Still, the Colts were hardly building up steam for a postseason run heading into Monday's matchup with the red-hot Cincinnati Bengals. Tony Dungy's club had lost three of its last four games and just had been steamrolled by the Jaguars one week earlier.

Indianapolis rebounded strongly from that sobering 44-17 defeat to Jacksonville, using a near-flawless performance from star quarterback Peyton Manning and a much-improved effort on defense to post an impressive 34-16 over the Bengals.

With the division title now sewed up, the Colts can focus on earning that all- important bye. A win on Sunday coupled with a Baltimore loss in Pittsburgh would clinch at least a No. 2 seed for Indianapolis.

The young Texans have long been out of the playoff picture, but an unprecedented victory over the mighty Colts would serve as sufficient proof that Houston, which endured a miserable 2-14 campaign a year ago, has been making strides under first-year head coach Gary Kubiak.

Judging by last week's performance against New England, however, that progress appears to be minimal. The Texans were dealt a 40-7 loss by the AFC East- leading Patriots, who held Houston to 198 total yards and forced struggling signal-caller David Carr into four interceptions.

SERIES HISTORY

The Colts have won all nine head-to-head meetings with the Texans all-time, including a 43-24 home triumph in Week 2. Indianapolis also swept home- and-homes against Houston in 2002, 2003, 2004, and 2005. Indianapolis was a 38-20 winner in last year's trip to Reliant Stadium.

Dungy is 9-0 against the Texans all-time, while Kubiak is 0-1 against both Dungy and the Colts as a head coach.

COLTS OFFENSE VS. TEXANS DEFENSE

Indianapolis owns the NFL's second-ranked offense in terms of total yards (382.3 ypg) and passing yards (272.9 ypg), while the Colts' 26.9 points per game average is fourth-best in the league. The unquestioned leader of the all- star unit is Manning, who received a well-deserved seventh consecutive Pro Bowl nod on Tuesday. The two-time league MVP leads the NFL with a 99.0 quarterback rating and 26 touchdown passes, while his 3,910 yards through the air is second only to New Orleans' Drew Brees this season. He's not the only Colt on offense that's headed to Honolulu, however. Marvin Harrison (82 receptions, 1,180 yards, 9 TD) and Reggie Wayne (77 receptions, 1,213 9 TD) are the best 1-2 receiver combination in the game, while sturdy center Jeff Saturday and standout tackle Tarik Glenn anchor a stout line that has allowed a league-low 15 sacks. The consistently-excellent Harrison was on the receiving end of three of Manning's four scoring tosses against the Bengals and is averaging seven catches and 120 yards over the last three weeks.

For Houston to have a chance on Sunday, its defense can't let Manning throw for 400 yards like he did in the Week 2 meeting between the teams. Cornerbacks Dunta Robinson (74 tackles, 2 INT) and Lewis Sanders had their hands full with Harrison and Wayne, who combined for 262 yards on 13 grabs that day, and Sanders has since been lost for the year with a broken hand. An already-thin secondary hopes to regain the services of free safety C.C. Brown (67 tackles, 1 sack), who missed the New England game with turf toe. The front seven doesn't often produce a lot of heat on enemy quarterbacks, as the Texans have managed a pedestrian 27 sacks on the season. Former No. 1 pick Jason Babin (25 tackles) leads Houston with five sacks in a situational role, while this year's top overall draft choice, end Mario Williams (40 tackles, 4.5 sacks) has shown flashes of being the dominant player that the organization envisioned. For the year, Houston stands 24th overall in passing yards (218.6 ypg).

Indy's running back tandem of Joseph Addai (917 rushing yards, 7 TD) and Dominic Rhodes (584 rushing yards, 5 TD) has been an effective complement to the Colts' pass-oriented attack. Both are quality receivers as well, as Addai has added 288 yards on 33 receptions, and Rhodes produced 245 yards on 35 grabs. Rhodes could see the bulk of the work on Sunday, after Addai hurt his ankle at the end of a season-long 41-yard run on Monday. The rookie, who amassed 82 yards on just 16 carries against Houston in September, is expected to be available, however. Indianapolis comes in listed 17th overall in rushing offense (109.4 ypg).

The Texans have shown improvement in stopping the run this season, considering the team was deplorable in that area last year, but their No. 20 league ranking (122.5 ypg) shows the defense is still far from being dominant. The biggest reason for the upgrade has been the very strong play of rookie middle linebacker DeMeco Ryans (137 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 1 INT), who looks like a future Pro Bowler, while weakside starter Marlon Greenwood (94 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) is an underrated player. Houston could use an upgrade at tackle, however, where veteran Anthony Weaver (35 tackles, 1 sack) is playing out of position and Jaguars castoff Anthony Maddox (24 tackles, 1 sack) doesn't appear to be a long-term solution.

TEXANS OFFENSE VS. COLTS DEFENSE

While Houston has had its moments on offense during the course of this campaign, the team still ranks in the bottom of the league in every major category, and the inconsistent play of Carr (2,518 yards, 10 TD, 11 INT) hasn't made any Texans fan forget that the organization passed on hometown hero Vince Young in April. The former No. 1 overall pick had a strong start to the season, highlighted by a 22-of-26, 219-yard, three-touchdown performance versus the Colts in Week 2, but he's been between mediocre to downright brutal in recent weeks. Carr has failed to throw for over 140 yards over the last three games and has tossed only one touchdown pass in a current eight-week stretch. While it's true that Houston's offensive line is still below average and its run game hardly frightens opponents, Carr does have some good weapons with which to work. Andre Johnson (97 receptions, 1,087 yards, 5 TD) is a top- flight wideout who is headed to his second Pro Bowl in three years, while 33- year-old Eric Moulds (55 receptions, 546 yards, 1 TD) remains a useful possession receiver. Rookie Owen Daniels (34 receptions, 352 yards, 5 TD) has been a pleasant surprise at tight end.

Teams haven't challenged Indianapolis a whole lot through the air this season, partly because the Colts do a good job defending the pass and pressuring the quarterback, and partly because they haven't been good against the run. Indy has yielded the second-fewest passing yards (155.8 ypg) in the NFL and gives up very few big plays downfield, as evidenced by the way the unit handled Carson Palmer and the Bengals' high-powered aerial attack on Monday. Cincinnati managed only 145 net passing yards despite the absence of the Colts' top three safeties, Bob Sanders, Marlin Jackson (65 tackles, 1 INT) and Antoine Bethea (71 tackles, 1 INT) -- all of whom could be out again this week. Indianapolis compensated by relentlessly harassing Palmer, sacking the star quarterback four times and throwing off his timing countless others. End Dwight Freeney (25 tackles, 5.5 sacks, 4 forced fumbles) was the star of the show, taking down Palmer three times and forcing three fumbles. The premier pass rusher teams with Robert Mathis (58 tackles, 9.5 sacks, 4 forced fumbles) to form one of the game's most dangerous duos.

Houston's season-long search for a dependable running back may have finally come to an end, as Ron Dayne (459 rushing yards, 3 TD) has put together three straight strong games. The burly veteran rushed for 94 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries versus the Patriots and is averaging a healthy 4.8 yards per attempt over the last three weeks. Rookie Wali Lundy still holds the team lead with 473 rushing yards and four scores, but has been relegated to spot duty due to Dayne's emergence. The Texans come in ranked 24th in both rushing (100.0 ypg) and passing (180.9 ypg) yardage.

Dayne's recent success could continue against a Colts defense that is giving up a league-worst 173.4 yards per game on the ground and was brutalized for 375 rushing yards -- the second-highest total since the NFL merger in 1970 -- by the Jaguars two weeks ago. Indianapolis had a more focused effort on Monday, however, and limited Cincinnati's Rudi Johnson to 79 yards on 22 attempts. Weakside linebacker Cato June (126 tackles, 2 INT) has been the team's most active defender, while last week's switch of Rob Morris (43 tackles), who had seven stops against the Bengals, to the strong side appears to have added some stability. The club could really use Sanders (27 tackles, 1 INT), a top-notch run-stopper, but the hard-nosed safety isn't expected to play as he continues to battle soreness in his surgically-repaired knee.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

Indianapolis certainly looked impressive on Monday, but it is still a bit premature to believe the Colts have completely fixed the problems that plagued them during their recent spell. Keep in mind that Indianapolis has lost its last three road games, and is still vulnerable to teams that can consistently pound the ball on the ground. If Dayne has another effective day and Carr somehow remembers how to play like he did early in the season, the Texans will put up some points, because Johnson will be a handful for Indy's banged-up secondary. Still, Houston doesn't have the personnel to either keep up with or slow down the Colts' scary offense. Look for Indianapolis to be challenged early, then pull away late.

Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Colts 31, Texans 20

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Brandon Roy Favorite to Win 2007 NBA Rookie of the Year

Portland TrailBlazer’s guard, Brandon Roy, is MySportsbook.com’s overwhelming favorite to win the NBA Rookie of the Year odds.

Despite missing 20 games due to an injury earlier this season, Roy has definitely put up the best numbers of his 1st year peers. In 32 games, Roy is averaging 15.3 PPG, 4.2 boards and 3.5 assists in over 33 minutes of play per game. While most rookies breakdown as the season progresses (see Morrison), Roy is only getting stronger as his playing time and scoring average has increased each month.

With 30 or so games left in the regular season, Roy isn’t a lock for the award by any means. Other rookies are putting together some pretty impressive campaigns and a few could give Roy a run for the award with increased playing time. Heading the list is first pick, Andrea Bargnani of the Toronto Raptors. Even though he has started only two games all season, Bargnani is averaging 10.3 PPPG while shooting 35% from deep.

Randy Foye of the Minnesota Timberwolves could be set to give Roy the best competition NBA Rookie of the Year betting lines. With the benching of Mike James, Foye looks like he could be the starter in the T-Wolves backcourt for the rest of the season. So far, Foye has averaged 9 PPG and 2.4 assists in just under 21 minutes per game. With his new role of starter, Foye’s numbers will definitely increase. In his first game as the new starting guard this past Sunday, Foye had 10 points; five rebounds and 8 assists. More importantly, he logged 34 minutes of playing time; his third highest run of the season.

Adam Morrison, of the Charlotte Bobcats, was the favorite early on in the season after averaging 15+ PPG through the first month of the season. Ever since his torrid start, Morrison’s point production has declined each month. This really isn’t surprising, considering at 6’8” he only weighs 205 lbs. Obviously he will need to hit the weights big time during the off-season in order to keep from breaking down in the future.

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Eastern Conference Playoff Betting Trends

We all know by now that the “public” loves to put their money on the FAVORITES and the OVERS.  Just by taking a quick glance at Sportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends” it appears as is this tendency will continue as far as the Eastern Conference games are concerned.  For the inaugural games of the first round, 69% of the early money is on Toronto -4.5; 59% of bettors prefer Chicago -4.5; 84% are backing Detroit -9; and 56% think Cleveland -11.5 is the way to go.  As far as TOTALS are concerned, the only UNDER the “public” is backing is the Cleveland/ Washington game in which 83% are pounding the UNDER (190).  Remember, there is no better way to predict a possible line change than by monitoring MySportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends”.   By determining who the “public” is backing, you can get the most ideal line for your bet.  For example, if you are siding with the public you better place your bet before the line moves in the wrong direction.  On the other side of the coin, if you prefer the team that the “public” is betting against; you might be able to get and extra ½ or even more by placing your bet a bit later.  Under the “Betting Trends” section, Sportsbook.com also provides plenty of statistical data and trends in order for the bettor to make the most informed pick.  Below are some extremely important trends for the first round opponents of the Eastern Conference match-ups, more can be found at MySportsbook.com

New Jersey Nets vs. Toronto Raptors

Toronto was the most reliable covering team this season with a 48-33-1 ATS record but covered the OVER only 41.5% of the time.
The last 20 times these teams have played, the TOTAL has gone UNDER 16 times.
Versus Eastern Conference teams, Toronto is 33-19 ATS including 17-9 at home.
 New Jersey has covered four games in a row while Toronto has failed to cover their last four games.
When playing a team with a winning record during the second half of the season, New Jersey was just 5-13 ATS this season.
After scoring 105 points or more, Toronto has covered the OVER only 28% of the time this season. 
 
Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls

Miami has failed to cover their last 7 games whereas Chicago has covered 6 out of their last 8 games.
Miami has covered the UNDER in four of their last five games whereas Chicago has covered the UNDER in five out of their last six.
When playing on Saturdays, Miami covered 80% of their games this season.
Away from home, Chicago is just 16-25 ATS this season.
At home, Miami covered the UNDER about 66% of the time whereas Chicago covered the UNDER about 61% of the time.
The last 13 times these teams have played each other, Chicago has covered 9 times.
In Miami’s last 11 road games, the UNDER covered 9 times. 
 
Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons

Detroit has covered 5 out of their last 6 games.
Away from home, Detroit is 28-13 ATS but just 14-26-1 ATS at home.
At home, Orlando covered the UNDER 64% of the time while Detroit covered the UNDER in 63% of their away games.
The last five times these teams have played in Detroit, the OVER covered each time.
Versus Eastern Conference teams, Detroit is 8-17-1 ATS at home but 17-9 ATS away.
Detroit covered the spread 5 out of the last 6 times they played Orlando.
After a Division game, Orlando covered the UNDER 87% of the time this season. 
 
Washington Wizards @ Cleveland Cavaliers

In a home game where the TOTAL is between 190 and 194.5 points, Cleveland is 9-1 ATS this season.
Washington has covered the UNDER in their last 6 games and in 8 of their last 9 games.
The last 6 times these teams have played each other, the UNDER covered each time.
When playing on 3 or more days of rest, Washington is just 18-37 ATS since 1996.
Since 1996, Washington is 28-16 ATS versus Cleveland including 11-5 over the last 3 seasons.
In their last 7 road games, Washington is 6-1 ATS.
Versus Eastern Conference teams at home, Washington is just 6-18-2 ATS. 
 
For even more betting trends for not just the NBA but for all of the major sports, log on to Sportsbook.com and click on “Trends”.  With only two months left in the NBA betting season it is important to be as well informed as possible in order to maximize your profit.  Also for all of you poker players, check out MySportsbook.com’s “WSOP Low Bid Auction”. You could be on your way to Vegas to play against the world’s best poker players for under a buck.

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