Despite scoring slump, Tavares building foundation

Hockey Betting Lines

03/11/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rookie forwards usually take at least a season to develop into consistent performers at the NHL level.

Even in the case of No. 1 overall picks, who are expected to be stars, it usually takes a year of adjustment to the grind of the NHL's 82-game schedule before they become "difference-makers".

The past three No. 1 overall picks have all experienced the expected highs and lows during their rookie campaigns. While Chicago Blackhawks' dangler Patrick Kane (2007) and Tampa Bay Lightning pivot Steven Stamkos (2008) are currently thriving, 2009 No. 1 overall pick John Tavares of the New York Islanders is going through a rough patch.

The 6-foot-0, 195-pound center started the 2009-10 season on a high note, scoring 15 goals in his first 31 games, but since late December, his scoring touch has deserted him. The talented rookie has scored just three goals in his last 35 games ahead of the Islanders matchup with the Blues on Thursday night, with a goal in the Islanders' most recent game snapping a 17-game scoreless streak.

"I knew there would be some bumps in the road," Tavares told The Sportsbook Betting Lines earlier this week. "That is part of the process. Obviously every game I would like to do good things out there and be able to produce."

But what the 19-year-old rookie has been able to contribute during his first professional season, despite the extended scoring slump, should be enough to make the Islanders and their fans beam.

"He has continued to work out of his scoring slump," Islanders coach Scott Gordon said. "That's an important part of it. His game hasn't tailed off in other areas from his frustration in not being able to score."

Tavares has been able to work on keeping his motor running in the offensive zone, not giving up on plays while also covering the ice better, which is a big part of the center-ice position at the NHL level. While he isn't putting the puck in the net consistently, he is still at least creating chances for himself and his linemates.

"The biggest take-away is that he is allowing himself the opportunity to get better in smaller areas while he is trying to find his scoring touch," Gordon said.

"Obviously during this stretch I'm on, where things haven't really gone my way, I have learned a lot, tried a lot of different things and worked on a lot of different parts of my game, which is going to help me in the long run," Tavares said. "I know what I have been able to do my whole life and this will only help me get better as I go along. I think I have proven myself as well, that I belong here and I can contribute consistently and produce consistently. It's my first year, I'm learning a lot and it will really help me for my future."

Tavares need look no further than Stamkos for inspiration. As a rookie last season, Stamkos started off shaky before finally finding his groove toward the end of the season. The early part of the season, while rough on the youngster, helped him develop his game.

The result? Stamkos is among the NHL leaders with 41 goals scored through March 11 in this, his second season in the NHL.

"It's great seeing a guy like Steven, who I know personally, doing well after having a tough year last year," Tavares said. "He played really well the second half of the season. For me it's positive to see guys who have been in my position and succeeded."

That positive attitude not only bodes well for Tavares' future, but the Islanders, who have lacked legitimate star power for a number of years. Tavares and second-year winger Kyle Okposo give the Islanders a young duo up front who they can build around. Both players seem to have the maturity, pedigree and desire to be the go-to-guys in the near future.

"I've dealt with pressure for a long time," Tavares said. "For me it's not really new. I think it's a different type at a different level. Kyle has proven himself as a great player and I'm trying to do doing the same thing. We like that, we like being in the situation where we are relied on in situations. We want to come up with the big plays at the big times and we are excited about our future here as Islanders."

The Islanders are currently last in the Atlantic Division and second-to-last in the Eastern Conference, but with a couple horses in the stable, there is at least a glimmer of hope for the downtrodden franchise.

"You just take it one day at a time," Tavares said. "I think we are trying to improve in a lot of areas."

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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