Determined Bengals Await Broncos, Cutler

Football Betting Lines

12/22/2006 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Appropriately, the Denver Broncos' quest for a spot in the AFC Playoff bracket could come down to a wild card.

He wears No. 6.

Rookie Jay Cutler will make his fourth career start when the Cincinnati Bengals invade Invesco Field at Mile High on Sunday, and the stakes for the young quarterback and his Broncos are high.

Win, and Denver (8-6) will be a home victory over the San Francisco 49ers away from securing a fourth playoff berth in as many seasons. Lose, and risk getting pushed to the rear by the similarly 8-6 Bengals, Jaguars, and/or Jets in the race to the postseason.

Normally, a late December game in chilly Denver (which had been graced with nearly two feet of snow by Thursday morning), against a Cincinnati team that makes most of its bones off of passing the football would spell a Broncos romp.

But when dealing with a rookie QB, one that will be only seven days removed from his first career win, you just never know.

Cutler was outstanding in last Sunday's 37-20 win over the Cardinals, completing 21-of-31 passes for 261 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. But the Vanderbilt product's next win at Mile High will be his first, the conditions will be far different than what the Indiana native faced in the Arizona heat last week, and perhaps most significantly, the opponent will of far greater quality.

The Bengals will be looking to rebound from Monday night's 34-16 loss in Indianapolis, a game that snapped a four-game win streak for Marvin Lewis' team. Cincinnati had won its previous four contests, including two against the playoff-bound Saints (31-16) and Ravens (13-7), by an average of 17 points.

SERIES HISTORY

Denver leads the all-time series with Cincinnati, 15-8, but was a 23-10 road loser when the teams last met, in 2004. The Broncos had won nine of the previous 10 head-to-head matchups, and have a seven-game winning streak against Cincinnati at home. Denver's last win in the series came in 2002, and they took the most recent matchup in the Mile High City in 1997. The Bengals are 2-10 in Denver all-time, with their only wins there coming in 1971 and 1975.

Broncos head coach Mike Shanahan has a 4-3 record against the Bengals in his career, including a loss while with the Los Angeles Raiders in 1988. Cincinnati's Lewis is 1-1 against Denver and Shanahan all-time.

BENGALS OFFENSE VS. BRONCOS DEFENSE

The throwing shoulder of Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer (3575 passing yards, 24 TD, 11 INT) has been a hot topic in and around Cincinnati this week, as Palmer missed practice with what was described as a sore throwing shoulder. Palmer and the team denied an internet report stating that Palmer had suffered a torn rotator cuff in last week's loss to Indianapolis, a game in which the quarterback struggled after taking a sack from Colts lineman Raheem Brock late in the second half. Palmer, who is listed as probable on this week's injury report, completed 14-of-28 passes for 176 yards with a lost fumble in the defeat. The 2003 Heisman winner was sacked four times in the game, but with right tackle Willie Anderson (foot) set to return after missing the second half in Indy, and left tackle Levi Jones (knee) a possibility to be in the lineup after an eight-game absence, the protection should be better on Sunday. Wideouts Chad Johnson (80 receptions, 7 TD), T.J. Houshmandzadeh (77 receptions, 8 TD), and Chris Henry (29 receptions, 7 TD) will also try to make life easier for Palmer. Houshmandzadeh was the most productive member of that group on Monday, catching four passes for 39 yards. Johnson, who was held to three grabs for 37 yards, continues to lead the league in receiving yards (1284).

The Broncos' defensive strengths begin in the secondary, where cornerback Champ Bailey (75 tackles, 8 INT) and safety John Lynch (68 tackles) are headed back to the Pro Bowl once again following this season. Bailey furthered his campaign for NFL Defensive Player of the Year honors last week, when he picked off the Cardinals' Matt Leinart twice to pull into a tie with New England's Asante Samuel for the league lead in INTs. Lynch had five tackles in the win. Cornerback Darrent Williams (79 tackles, 3 INT), who missed last week's game with a toe problem, should return to start opposite Bailey on Sunday. A pass rush that has had problems applying consistent pressure this year comes off a week in which it managed three sacks against the Cardinals. Multi-purpose lineman Ebenezer Ekuban (49 tackles, 5.5 sacks) notched one of the sacks to move within striking distance of the team-best of seven, held by rookie end Elvis Dumervil.

It was believed that Cincinnati would try to pound the run with Rudi Johnson (1133 rushing yards, 11 TD, 20 receptions) on Monday night in Indianapolis, but the fact that the Bengals were playing from behind for the entire second half meant fewer opportunities for Johnson. The three-time 1,000-yard rusher finished with 79 yards on 22 carries, including a second-quarter touchdown run. Third-down back Kenny Watson (124 rushing yards, 1 TD, 18 receptions) also registered an impact, rushing four times for 30 yards and totaling a team-best 56 receiving yards on three catches. The Bengals rank just 22nd in the league in rushing offense (102.6 yards per game).

Denver's run-stopping crew would not be accurately described as stifling, as it ranks just 12th in the league in rushing defense (105.4 yards per game), but the principal figures that make up the front seven are fundamentally sound. Tackles Gerard Warren (27 tackles, 1.5 sacks) and Michael Myers (47 tackles, 2 sacks) do a solid job at the point of attack, with linebackers Al Wilson (95 tackles, 1 sack), Ian Gold (75 tackles), and D.J. Williams (68 tackles) making plays behind them. Warren notched his first solo sack of the year in Arizona last Sunday, while Gold led the linebackers with six stops.

BRONCOS OFFENSE VS. BENGALS DEFENSE

Cutler's 1-2 record as a starter might not be eliciting Elway comparisons in Denver, but the rookie's 90.1 passer rating, which is far better than that of any other NFL rookie, is certainly a good sign. Cutler's issues in his three starts have had less to do with his accuracy (58.5 completion percentage) and playmaking ability (two touchdown passes in each game) than with his decisiveness (he's been sacked eight times) and ability to protect the football (three interceptions, two lost fumbles). The youngster will have things a bit easier this week if right tackle Adam Meadows, who has missed the last three games with a hamstring injury, can return as expected. Starting wideouts Javon Walker (62 receptions, 7 TD) and Rod Smith (46 receptions, 3 TD) both caught TD passes from Cutler last week, and blossoming third receiver finished with a team-high-tying five catches for 58 yards. Rookie tight end Tony Scheffler (13 receptions, 2 TD) has come on of late, compiling six grabs for 124 yards and two touchdowns in his last two games combined.

After scarcely laying a finger on Peyton Manning Monday night, the Bengals will look to get in the face of the seemingly less-decisive Cutler on Sunday. Cincinnati finished with just one sack against Indy, that by end Bryan Robinson (37 tackles, 3 sacks), and the lack of a rush allowed the perennial Pro Bowler to complete 29-of-36 passes for 282 yards and four touchdowns without a turnover. Ends Robert Geathers (36 tackles, 10.5 sacks) and Justin Smith (67 tackles, 7 sacks) will be among those trying to break into the sack category Sunday afternoon. The secondary has been using six players - cornerbacks Tory James (39 tackles, 3 INT), Johnathan Joseph (45 tackles), and ex-Bronco Deltha O'Neal (36 tackles, 1 INT) along with safeties Madieu Williams (78 tackles, 3 INT), Kevin Kaesviharn (58 tackles, 6 INT, 3.5 sacks), and Dexter Jackson (43 tackles, 1 sack) - in regular roles. O'Neal, who had 15 interceptions as a member of the Broncos from 2000 through 2003, returned to the lineup after a four-game absence last week. The Bengals are dead last in the league against the pass (241.6 yards per game).

The weather conditions on Sunday are likely to demand a run-first approach, not that Denver would stray too far from that ideal regardless of the elements. Though the Broncos rank sixth in NFL rushing offense (136.4 yards per game), consistency has been something of an issue for the backfield tandem of Tatum Bell (927 rushing yards, 2 TD, 21 receptions) and Mike Bell (542 rushing yards, 7 TD, 16 receptions). Against a nondescript Cardinals front seven last week, the Bells managed just 90 yards on 34 combined carries (2.7 yards per rush), with Mike Bell's two touchdowns both coming in the fourth quarter when Denver had a comfortable lead. Tatum Bell, who was held to 29 yards on 18 totes for the afternoon, needs 73 yards to cross the 1,000 mark for the first time in his career.

The Bengals are a middle-of-the-pack 13th in the league against the run (109.2 yards per game), and have been generally strong versus the rush since allowing the Chargers' LaDainian Tomlinson to go for 104 yards and four touchdowns against them on Nov. 12th. The linebacking corps this week should feature Brian Simmons (50 tackles, 2 INT) in the middle and Landon Johnson (96 tackles, 1 INT, 0.5 sacks) and Rashad Jeanty (48 tackles) on the outside. The veteran Simmons, who has been battling injuries for much of the year, made just his second start since Oct. 1st on Monday night, and posted a season-high 11 tackles against the Colts. John Thornton (34 tackles, 2 sacks) and Sam Adams (9 tackles, 1 sack) started at the tackle spots as usual last week, but second-year lineman Jonathan Fanene could be in line for more time in the trenches after recording three tackles against the Colts.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

If you limit your memory about the Bengals and Broncos to the most recent week, you will be left with no doubt that Denver should win this game. Blossoming quarterback + superior running game at home, in the cold, against a somewhat battered Cincinnati team that had its lunch handed to it in Indianapolis, etc. But when viewing each team's work over the entirety of the past month, it can be argued that last week was a one-game aberration for both. The Bengals defense should have an easier time controlling Cutler than they did Manning, the Denver "D" won't be able to handle Cincinnati's offense as it did that of Arizona, and the Bengals will leave Mile High with an important win that gets them back to the top of the Wild Card discussion.

Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Bengals 24, Broncos 22