Surging Flyers host Bruins in Winter Classic rematch

Hockey Betting Lines

03/11/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Flyers will try to continue their surge in the right direction when they host the Boston Bruins tonight at Wachovia Center.

The Flyers are 7-1-1 in their last nine games and have greatly improved their playoff chances since they last played the Bruins outdoors in the Winter Classic.

After losing the New Year's Day game at Fenway Park in overtime, Philadelphia has posted a 16-8-1 record and is now sixth in the Eastern Conference with 74 points.

Meanwhile, Boston has lost 17 out of 25 games since the Winter Classic, going 8-12-5 over that stretch. As a result, Boston comes into tonight as the eighth seed in the East and four points behind the Flyers.

Philadelphia beat the Bruins twice this year before the loss on Jan 1. and tonight's meeting caps the four-game season series. The Flyers have won four of six overall against Boston, but the Bruins have taken six of eight and seven of their last 10 games in Philly.

The Flyers have won two straight games and are coming off Tuesday's comeback win over the visiting New York Islanders. Philadelphia trailed 2-0 in the second period before scoring the games final three goals.

The 3-2 decision marked the 15th straight win over the Isles for the Flyers, giving Philadelphia the longest active stretch of victories by one team over any single opponent in the league.

Simon Gagne was credited with the game-winning power-play goal with 6:06 remaining in regulation to lift the Flyers to victory on Tuesday.

Claude Giroux and Jeff Carter also scored for the Flyers, while Michael Leighton turned aside 23 shots for Philadelphia.

"I thought halfway through the second period, once the guys came back to the bench, we got back into a rhythm," head coach Peter Laviolette told the Flyers official Web site.

Mike Richards added an assist in the win and the Flyers captain has registered a point in six straight games, posting three goals and six helpers over that span.

Philadelphia has won five straight and 11 of its last 13 home games. The Flyers, who are 20-11-2 at Wachovia this year, will cap a four-game homestand Saturday against Chicago.

The Bruins, who are 15-11-6 as the guest this year, are making the fourth stop on seven-game road trip and are 1-1-1 on the swing so far.

Boston was dealt an overtime loss Tuesday in Toronto as Nikolai Kulemin scored with 49.7 seconds left in OT to claim a 4-3 decision.

Patrice Bergeron, Marco Sturm and Mark Recchi got the goals for Boston, which has lost two straight. Tim Thomas made several big stops but wound up on the wrong end of a 26-save effort.

"We know we're in the (playoff) race right now, you can't give up those points," said Bergeron.

Tuesday's test was the first game for Boston since it lost star forward Marc Savard to a concussion. Savard, who has 33 points in 41 games this year, suffered a Grade Two concussion after taking a shoulder to the head from Pittsburgh's Matt Cooke on Sunday.

Savard, the Bruins' leading scorer in each of the previous three seasons, is sidelined indefinitely and could possibly miss the rest of the year. Cooke was not penalized on the play and it was announced Wednesday that he will not be suspended by the league.

In other injury news for Boston, top defenseman Zdeno Chara is questionable for tonight after missing the last game with a lower-body issue. Fellow blueliner Andrew Ference is also questionable after sitting out the last four tests with a groin injury.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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